Labor Force Starting To Show Cracks
Last week we saw Job Openings fall to 2 year low
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Market Talk ⏪
Overall, the market had a positive week last week, but the cracks are becoming more evident. Early in the week, we saw data regarding job openings fall to 9.93 million, a drop of 632,000 from January’s totals and the first time we have seen this data drop below 10 million since May 2021. Analysts were estimating job openings of 10.4 million.
This is the first sign that the Fed and their plan is starting to work. They have set out since the beginning with the hopes of slowing a red hot labor force. I have spoken about this for a number of weeks within this newsletter.
As the economy slows, companies are less likely to grow personnel. As the number of position openings lessen, employees looking to job hop would reduce also, which in itself would help bring down inflation.
On Friday, we got word that the economy added 236,000 jobs in the month of March, which again showed the resiliency of the US economy. The US unemployment rate stood at 3.5%. The private payroll report showed a slowdown within that sector.
This week, on Wednesday, we will get the latest reading on where inflation (CPI) stands after continued rate hikes and a labor force beginning to show some signs of cracking. Any surprise slowdown to inflation could be a boost for stocks in the near term.
If inflation is lower than expected and we continue to see pressure within the labor market, I would fully expect the Fed to potentially pause when it comes to rate hikes.
With some huge data points expected during the week, we end the week with the beginning of Q1 earnings reports from big banks such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo.
In international news, OPEC surprisingly cut their oil output of 1.16 million barrels per day. This sent crude prices surging, and woke up some oil/energy related stocks that had been in a slowdown after a strong 2022.
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US Markets 🇺🇸
Here is a performance summary for US Equities:
Here is a look at US Treasuries:
The Fear & Greed Index measures market sentiment based on the following seven factors: put/call ratios, junk bond demand, stock price breadth, market volatility, stock price strength, safe-haven demand, and market momentum.
When it comes to the Fear and Greed Index, we have seen the markets move back into the green and subsequently, the Fear & Greed Index have climbed to Greed levels once again, after being in a position of fear just a week ago. Currently, the index has a reading of 57, which is slightly up from the prior week reading of 34.
Earnings on Deck 💰
The Q1 earnings season officially kicks off on Friday with earnings due from some of the larger banks. Here are the earnings reports for the week:
Dividend News 📝
Here are some notable analyst upgrade/downgrades from the previous week:
Stephens upgrades US Bancorp USB 0.00%↑ to overweight
William Blair upgrades Allstate ALL 0.00%↑ to outperform
Bernstein upgrades Intel INTC 0.00%↑ to outperform
Morgan Stanley upgrades Norfolk Southern NSC 0.00%↑ to equal weight
Morgan Stanley upgrades CSX CSX 0.00%↑to equal weight
KeyBanc upgrades Comcast CMCSA 0.00%↑to overweight
JPMorgan upgrades Prudential PRU 0.00%↑to overweight
Raymond James upgrades Cigna CI 0.00%↑ to strong buy
Raymond James upgrades UnitedHealth Group UNH 0.00%↑to strong buy
Raymond James upgrades FedEx FDX 0.00%↑ to outperform
Raymond James upgrades Wells Fargo WFC 0.00%↑ to strong buy
This Week 📆
Monday
Wholesale Inventories
Tuesday
NFIB small business index
Wednesday
Consumer price index
FOMC minutes
Thursday
Jobless claims
Producer price index
Friday
Export and import price indexes
Retail sales
Industrial production
University of Michigan consumer sentiment
Fed H.8 data on assets and liabilities of U.S. commercial banks
Other Resources 📺
If you have not done so yet, definitely check out my growing YouTube community where I publish weekly videos on Dividend Stocks I am looking at.
Here is a look at my latest video: Better Buy: ABBV or JNJ.
Here is the other video I published last week: 3 Discounted Dividend Aristocrats:
Here are a few others of my latest videos:
4 Dividend Stocks To Buy In April
The New Look SCHD: Still The Best Dividend ETF
This REIT Is The Next Realty Income
3 MONTHLY Paying Dividend Stocks To Buy
3 High-Yield Dividend Stocks To Boost Your Dividend Income
Top 10 Dividend Stocks For 2023
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Have questions? You can email me directly at Mark@RoussinFinancial.com.
Happy Investing!
Mark
Crazy times!
Another earnings season is upon us and I’m very interested to see what numbers will be reported