Thank you for sharing such an insightful post on the recent market performance. It's encouraging to see the gains made in Q1 2023, particularly with the Nasdaq showing impressive growth. However, I can't help but wonder how sustainable this positive trend is, given the current global tensions and the possibility of a looming war.
Do you think the stock market will continue to thrive despite these uncertainties, or should we prepare for a potential downturn? I'm looking forward to hearing your thoughts on this.
Martin, thank you for the question and your support. You bring up some great points and in my opinion, the run we saw in Q1 does seem a little over done. It does not quite pass the smell test.
Although the labor force has remained strong, there are signs that the consumer is beginning to weaken, as I have pointed out in former newsletter posts. We should get a nice update from the jobs report this week. As such, I think it is likely that we see a decent pullback as earnings adjustments have not yet worked through the system and the S&P 500 multiple is still quite high, so it makes you ask the question, what is the reasoning for multiple expansion from current levels. Hopefully this helps!
Thank you for sharing such an insightful post on the recent market performance. It's encouraging to see the gains made in Q1 2023, particularly with the Nasdaq showing impressive growth. However, I can't help but wonder how sustainable this positive trend is, given the current global tensions and the possibility of a looming war.
Do you think the stock market will continue to thrive despite these uncertainties, or should we prepare for a potential downturn? I'm looking forward to hearing your thoughts on this.
Martin, thank you for the question and your support. You bring up some great points and in my opinion, the run we saw in Q1 does seem a little over done. It does not quite pass the smell test.
Although the labor force has remained strong, there are signs that the consumer is beginning to weaken, as I have pointed out in former newsletter posts. We should get a nice update from the jobs report this week. As such, I think it is likely that we see a decent pullback as earnings adjustments have not yet worked through the system and the S&P 500 multiple is still quite high, so it makes you ask the question, what is the reasoning for multiple expansion from current levels. Hopefully this helps!
- Mark